The Los Angeles Lakers have a chance to advance to the Western Conference Finals with a win against the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday night in Game 5 at Chase Center.
L.A. has been up 3-1 in four playoff series, only blowing the series lead once — the first round of the 2006 NBA Playoffs when the Phoenix Suns stormed back. LeBron James is a whopping 17-0 in his career when leading a series three games to one, never even needing a Game 7.
However, if there’s a team that can make up the deficit, it is the Warriors. During the Steve Kerr era, Golden State is 1-1 when facing a 3-1 deficit in the playoffs — the most recent time being the 2019 NBA Finals when they lost to the Toronto Raptors. The Warriors have one of the more memorable 3-1 comebacks, defeating the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2016 to reach the NBA Finals.
History is on the side of the Lakers, but it’s not an excuse to let up, especially against a team as dangerous as the Warriors are at home. If the Lakers hope to close out the series and secure rest, they must defeat a team that is 35-10 at home this season. Golden State has not lost two games at home in the same playoff series since the 2019 NBA Finals, the last time they faced a 3-1 deficit.
The Warriors are due for a hot shooting game from deep too — they shot 29% from the 3-point line in consecutive games. Their lone win of the series came after a 50% shooting performance from deep. Simply put, if Golden State catches fire from beyond the arc, it will be difficult for the Lakers to match that clip.
Luckily for L.A., defensive adjustments since Game 2 have kept the Warriors’ offense in check. The Lakers’ defense rating continues to be the best in the playoffs. It’s been a chess match between Darvin Ham and Kerr, especially regarding the Lakers’ pick-and-roll defense.
The Warriors were adamant about running Anthony Davis through pick-and-rolls in the first half of Game 4, putting him as the screener’s defender 24 times. It’s a strategy to move Davis away from the basket and open up driving lanes. Ham adjusted, switching matchups in the second half leading to Davis being the screener’s defender just six times.
Davis’ importance on defense is clear, but finding his rhythm on offense is imperative for a series-clinching win. The Lakers are undefeated during the playoffs when Davis scores at least 20 points. His assertiveness on that end opens the door for other contributors to catch fire such as D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves and even Lonnie Walker IV.
A likely smaller Warriors lineup opens up another potentially dominant offensive night for Davis, however, it’s unclear how Kerr will counter after Game 4.
By inserting Gary Payton II in the lineup in Game 4, Golden State opted for a more space-friendly group that can spread the Lakers out. That move didn’t cause much damage — Payton played just 23 minutes and was a plus-3 with 15 points in the game. The Warriors could resort back to Kevon Looney in the lineup, a group that’s been outscored by 17 points per 100 possessions in 13 minutes this series. Looney though has been limited due to an illness.
Whatever Golden State decides to do with its lineup, the Lakers can take matters into their own hands and close the series out behind a defense that continues to dominate. Giving any type of momentum to the Warriors can be catastrophic, making a strong start to the game crucial.
Los Angeles Lakers (3-1) vs. Golden State Warriors (1-3)
7:00 p.m. PT, May 8, 2023
Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
TV: TNT
Radio: 710 AM ESPN LA
Projected Lakers Starting Lineup:
PG: D’Angelo Russell
SG: Austin Reaves
SF: LeBron James
PF: Jarred Vanderbilt
C: Anthony Davis
Key Reserves: Rui Hachimura, Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker IV, Wenyen Gabriel
Projected Warriors Starting Lineup:
PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Gary Payton II
PF: Andrew Wiggins
C: Draymond Green
Key Reserves: Kevon Looney, Jordan Poole, Donte DiVincenzo, Moses Moody, JaMychal Green
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