I know what you’re probably thinking: Dwight Howard hasn’t even signed an extension yet, how can you assume he’ll be a Laker for even one season past this one? Or, maybe you’re like most fans and haven’t even given that a thought because you’re just anxious to see Superman–or Iron Man–take the court for the first time as a Laker.
In either case, I’m going to go ahead and predict that Howard will be a Laker for many years to come. There’s just too much allure in Los Angeles not to want to remain here. Not to mention that the Lakers can offer him the most money next summer in free agency.
Unless things go horribly wrong this season, I’m going to say Dwight Howard will be here for a while.
So, assuming Howard signs a lengthy contract, this is my theory as to how his game will evolve over the next few seasons.
Right now, Howard is an athletic specimen who runs the floor extremely well for someone 6’11” and 265 pounds. On top of that, he’s extremely agile at the center position, makes quick moves to the basket, and is one of the best defenders this league has ever seen; even winning the Defensive Player of the Year award three years in a row (2009-2011).
And right now, Howard is exactly what the Lakers need. The Lakers could have easily stood pat and kept Andrew Bynum, but after they acquired Steve Nash, it made much more sense to acquire Howard. Why? Well, quite simply because Andrew Bynum is a traditional back-t0-the-basket type of player, and was becoming more and more like Pau Gasol.
Obviously, Dwight Howard is widely considered the best Center in the league today, but Bynum’s offensive game is often regarded as more refined than Howard’s. But when the Lakers picked up Steve Nash, they didn’t need two players in the post who utilize patience in order to break down their opponents by reading and reacting. No, they needed quickness and a freakishly athletic big man who can beat other teams to death via pick-and-rolls alongside one of the best point guards of all time.
They needed a yin to Pau Gasol’s yang, and they sure got one.
Right now, during a half-court set Gasol can go to work in the post and either create shots for himself or for others, and when Nash is out there free-styling in a high-paced offense, Howard will be a primary benefactor of it.
Not to mention the fact that Howard’s innate athleticism virtually erased the need for the Lakers to acquire an athletic wing-man to run fast breaks with Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant–which is also one example of Mitch Kupchak and Jim Buss’ brilliance.
Additionally, the fact that Pau Gasol is actually more efficient at the center position (his Player Efficiency Rating is 21.7 at the center position compared with 20.1 at the power forward slot, while his opponents’ PER is 15.6 at the power forward and 12.2 at the center) makes a lot of sense as well.
What I mean is, when Gasol and Bynum were on the floor together during their run, Gasol had to operate in the high-post and, to his credit, usually created nice lob plays for the Lakers’ previous big fella. Undoubtedly Gasol will do the same for Howard, but the two can operate a bit differently.
Previously, Gasol had to basically stay away from the basket in order to give Bynum room to operate. With Howard, he won’t exactly have to do that. Pau can play closer to the basket during half-court sets with Howard moving around the court a bit more because of his quickness. Because of Gasol’s offensive arsenal and back-to-the-basket type of game, he can work on his opponents and if they double-team him when he gets into scoring position, he can find a cutting Howard for an easy basket.
Howard isn’t exactly a power forward, but because of his non-traditional skills at the center position coupled with his athletic ability, he’ll be able to benefit from some of Gasol’s technical abilities–which will essentially benefit them both.
Basically, Gasol will be able to play the center position from time to time alongside his All-Star frontcourt mate for the first time with the Lakers (he’s done this before with his brother, Marc, on the Spanish National team); something he wasn’t able to do with Bynum.
Now that we know why Howard is perfect for the Lakers right now, let’s delve into how he can be perfect for the Lakers for years to come.
Next: The Transition
I believe the transition will take place after this season. What I’m talking about is Howard’s transition into a more traditional center.
As reported over the summer, Dwight Howard expressed his intention to learn from Lakers great and the NBA’s all-time scoring leader, Kareem Abdul-Jabaar. He even reached out to Kareem and met him in person in order to get things started on the right foot.
Additionally, as many of you have heard by now, former Lakers center Shaquille O’Neal–who has touted Andrew Bynum as the league’s best center since last season–went as far as saying that Brooklyn Nets’ center Brook Lopez is also better than Dwight Howard; he initially stated New Orleans Hornets’ center Robin Lopez, but when asked if he meant Brook, replied “Brook. Same thing. They’re brothers.”
I’m not going to sit here and defend Shaq, but I can at least understand where he’s coming from. His reasoning for favoring those guys as centers over Howard is simply because “they play with their backs to the basket.”
That much is true. Those players have more of a traditional game, but I think someone needs to ask Shaq who he’d rather build a franchise around. Obviously Howard’s defensive dominance and raw physical ability would likely receive a unanimous decision in favor of Superman among GMs in the league and if Shaq actually answered “Brook Lopez” in that question, maybe Cap’ is right and Shaq is delusional.
Anyway, this is part of the reason I believe Howard is going to transition into a more traditional center. More importantly, it’s what the Lakers will need from him going forward.
Kobe Bryant intends to retire once his contract is up (which will be in 2014), and at that time Dwight Howard will be the face of the franchise.
Pau Gasol will be 34 and may not even be a Laker anymore, Steve Nash will possibly still be with the team entering his last contractual season at 40 years of age, and Dwight Howard will be smack dab in his prime at the age of 28.
Basically, the offense and the defense will be running through the big fella, and he’s going to need to be the best he can be. It’s quite remarkable that Howard was able to lead his Orlando Magic to the 2009 NBA Finals at age 23, but imagine how great he can be at 28 and with an elite offensive arsenal.
I, for one, believe he will transition his game and learn to become a back-to-the-basket center, learn how to use both hands effectively, and learn a myriad of new offensive moves; all while still utilizing his athletic ability.
He may never have the soft touch that Pau Gasol or even Andrew Bynum possess, but he can definitely refine his offensive game and make himself unstoppable.
Even if he never ends up working with Kareem, he has two of the best post-players in the league today–Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol–working alongside him in practice every single day, and will undoubtedly pick up some things. And if he’s actively looking to add to his offensive repertoire, those guys will be more than willing to help him out.
Gasol is as nice as they come, and Kobe has already stated that he intends to teach Dwight every thing he knows so that when he retires, the franchise will be in good hands. Additionally, Howard is apparently eager to learn from Bryant and follow his lead, and reportedly Kobe has already been secretly mentoring him for years!
You may be asking, “Well, how can Kobe teach Dwight how to be a center?” Well, he can’t. But, Bryant has the best footwork in the league–which includes his post game. In fact, he arguably has the best post game in the league today. Add on top of that Bryant’s infinite knowledge of the game of basketball, and he can make even the best players better.
In either event, Howard has all the basketball knowledge in the world in the forms of Kareem Abdul-Jabaar, Pau Gasol, and Kobe Bryant when it comes to operating in the post, and Kobe and Steve Nash’s brilliance of the overall game, at his disposal.
As long as Howard maintains his eagerness and will to learn, I truly believe we will see the best center in the game today transition into one of the greatest players to ever play the game.