I am a Fantasy NBA fanatic. I don’t mean salary cap NBA, not stock exchange, but straight up old-fashioned 9 cat Yahoo!Sports fantasy NBA rotisserie (don’t get me started on head to head, I consider H2H too capricious, random, and based on luck). For those of you who know what I’m talking about and would like an expert’s opinion on the upcoming fantasy season, or would like to play fantasy NBA but have no idea how, then read on. If not, hopefully this video will entertain you:
httpvhd://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31ulE3jb6Q8
Next: How it All Works
The underlying concept of fantasy NBA is that you (the manager) pick a roster (your team) of real NBA players and your team accumulates statistics as these players accrue statistics in real life NBA games. For example, if you own LeBron James in your fantasy league and he goes off for 50 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists in a game against the Bucks, your fantasy team will also gain 50 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists. Thus, the performance of your team is completely dependent on your players’ performance.
Scoring for Fantasy NBA usually falls within two categories. The first is Head 2 Head, which I’ve already stated I am not a huge fan of. The reason for this is that each week you are paired up against another manager in your league, and you compete with each other for the week. The following week you play against another team, and so on and so forth. For the last few weeks of the regular season, you have “playoffs” for the top teams in your league. I don’t like this scoring method for several reasons, but much of the strategy I present is applicable in this scoring format as well.
On to rotisserie scoring, my favorite. Rotisserie scoring basically accumulates stats for your players throughout the course of an entire NBA season, your stats are then compared with stats for the other teams in your league and you are ranked accordingly. There are no playoffs for rotisserie. For both scoring formats, there are different options for what statistical categories to use, but the standard formats use nine: Points Scored, Field Goal Percentage, Free Throw Percentage, 3 Pointers Made, Assists, Rebounds, Steals, Blocks, and Turnovers.
The first thing to remember is that these categories only reflect statistical contributions of players, and there is an emphasis on offensive production since it’s much more measurable. As a result, players such as Danny Granger and Shawn Marion (formerly) who contribute across the board are valued very highly, more so than they are in real life.
Especially awesome are big players that can make 3s (like Dirk), and small players that get lots of rebounds (like Jason Kidd or Rajon Rondo). Also pretty valuable are players that play multiple positions since most leagues require you to set your roster such that players are assigned a position (so if you have 5 centers and all of them are scheduled to play a game a certain night, some of them might not get to contribute since you only have space for 4 centers in your league.) You can usually update your roster everyday, but some leagues only allow you to update once a week.
In Yahoo! Fantasy NBA, default settings give you a roster of 13 players, with up to 9 of them playing any given day. These players are divided by position, you are allowed: 1 Point Guard, 1 Shooting Guard, 1 additional Guard, 1Small Forward, 1 Power Forward, 1 additional Forward, 2 Centers, and then 2 players of any position called Utility players. In addition, there are only 82 games available at each position, so you don’t gain any advantage by changing your roster everyday and ensuring you accumulate as many games as possible.
Don’t forget that a huge component of fantasy NBA success is predicated on luck, you could assemble the best team possible but if a few key players get injured you could be sunk, just like the real NBA. Now that you know the basics, here’s a quick rundown of some potential fantasy sleepers and busts for the upcoming season. For the most part, the default rankings in yahoo are actually very good, but here are some possible bargains.
Note, in case you have not figured it out yet, Fantasy NBA will not help you pick up chicks.
Next: The Eastern Conference
10 Players to Keep an Eye On:
Roy Hibbert is primed to have a huge fantasy season. For the past two seasons he’s shown promise with huge rebounding and block numbers but he can’t seem to stay out of foul trouble. With little to no competition at the big man positions, Hibbert has a great opportunity this season. Keep an eye on Hibbert, he’s a risky proposition but he could be worth the gamble.
Jeff Teague was considered a sleeper in his rookie season, as many people considered him a talented player who was drafted at a low position. Although he has yet to perform at a high level to show he warrants such expectations, as Mike Bibby (32 at the start of the season) continues to age, Teague will have every chance to show his meddle. Keep an eye on Teague’s performance as the season begins, and if Bibby gets injured Teague will get a shot at legitimate minutes. Also check on the Hawks rookie Jordan Crawford, who could be a scoring machine who puts up numbers similar to Jamal Crawford. Definitely don’t draft these guys, but check in on them every now and then.
DJ Augustin will be in a position to put up big numbers at the start of the next season. As of now he should be the starting PG for Charlotte, however Shaun Livingston is worth keeping an eye on as well. Whoever wins the point guard battle may put up some impressive numbers. Augustin has shown potential to be a poor man’s Stephen Curry and could be worth picking up.
Mario Chalmers should be a good niche player who will contribute a plethora of 3s and several assists and steals. He’ll benefit from his new all-star players and I would pick him up in later rounds if you need 3 point help. I have confidence in Leandro Barbosa to rebound from two bad seasons, and I think he’ll show improved scoring and three-point numbers this next year. Keep an eye on Anthony Morrow, Mike Miller and Mikael Pietrus also, they could be potential 3 point studs.
Raymond Felton has been a decent, if not great point guard in his young career. Although he’s no superstar, he is pretty solid and is young enough that he could get better. His biggest knock is that he’s not a great shooter, but that may not matter in his first year under D’Antoni’s system. Expect some big assist numbers for Felton and easily his best fantasy season of his young career. Don’t expect his shooting numbers to improve, but don’t forget how Chris Duhon, a player who sucks, dished 20 assists in a game in the D’Antoni offense.
Anthony Randolph has been constantly hyped as having KG potential. I know those comparisons are mostly just for hype, but I’m getting sick of hearing about what Anthony Randolph can do rather than what Anthony Randolph has done. I’m willing to give him a chance though, seeing as how he seems to be healthy and he’s also in the D’Antoni offense. If he’s as good as they say, he should be able to put up 16-9 with 1.5+ blocks. Keep an eye on Derrick Favors of the Nets, if he gets many minutes he may end up being a sleeper hit who puts up similar numbers. Check out the video before to see why Randolph keeps getting hyped (it starts off slow, but the second half is pretty impressive).
httpvhd://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z85vHk5cc98
John Wall and Gilbert Arenas should both be fantasy all-stars this year. I won’t say Wall will have an amazing rookie season, but I think he’ll pretty much be a poor man’s Derrick Rose. Gilbert Arenas should be healthy, and he could be an amazing bargain since many people seem to have forgotten how much of a beast he was a few years ago. Two other players to keep an eye on since they’ve had a down year or two but used to be second round picks: Elton Brand and Jose Calderon.
Check out this sweet layup by John Wall
httpvhd://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQLHCqSwpsE
Andrea Bargnani has been primed to take a step for several years now. He scores at a decent clip (17.0 ppg), knocks down a few 3s and blocks (1.5 3pg and 1.4 bpg), now if he could just improve on his pathetic 6.2 rebounds per game last season and improve slightly all across the board (very possible with the departure of Chris Bosh), and he could be a poor man’s Dirk Nowitzki. Also look out for Joakim Noah who has improved in each of his seasons. With a healthy body, Noah will be a poor man’s Dwight Howard.
Amir Johnson and Jrue Holiday are two players whom I’m mentioning mostly because I keep hearing about their potential. To be honest, I was never that impressed with either of them, but with Amir as a possible starter in Toronto and Jrue as the starting PG on Philly, they’ll have the chance to show what they can do. Holiday showed some promise in the second half of last season, and from what I hear about Amir Johnson he’s like a Kenyon Martin/Tyrus Thomas type player. I hope he manages to steer clear of the Stromile Swift/Keon Clark career paths and be a shot-blocking/rebounding machine. JJ Hickson is another player who will receive a boost in minutes and have a chance to put up similar numbers.
Darren Collison put up jaw-dropping numbers as a starter when Chris Paul was injured last season. If he can come anywhere close to matching those numbers, he’ll have surpassed the expectations I had of him (this coming from a UCLA Bruin who was a big fan of Collison but admitted he was totally overmatched against Derrick Rose in the 2008 Final Four). Collison has the opportunity to become a model fantasy point guard who contributes across the boards with points, steals, assists, and threes.
5 Player to be Wary of:
Andrew Bogut is definitely a good player and definitely worthy of being picked up in fantasy drafts, but beware of his injuries. He’s still hurting right now, although he should be healthy shortly after the season begins.
Tyrus Thomas has given us 4 years to show what he can do, and he has yet to put together anything longer than 2 or 3 games in a row. In theory he’s a Kenyon Martin type player who puts up good rebound, steal and block numbers, but his injury, foul, and inconsistency problems have caused me to give up hope on him. Also keep an eye on the big men in Washington, Andray Blatche, Yi Jianlin and Javale Mcgee. Logic dictates that at least one of these three will have a solid fantasy season, but all three of them have proven to be inconsistent throughout their careers. Be wary of each of these 3, but if you pick correctly you could have big rewards.
Carlos Boozer is a good player, but just like in real life I don’t think you can build a fantasy team around him. Especially now that he’s injured (broken hand and will be out for two months), I’d stay away from him. Once he’s healthy I’m sure he’ll be productive, but I don’t think we’ll see the 20-10 with decent percentages we saw in Utah.
Charlie Villanueva and Marvin Williams are two players we keep hearing hype about how talented they are. Villanueva is known for his versatile game, but last year was completely forgettable and I still have a bad taste in my mouth. Marvin Williams also had a forgettable year, and it seems like he’s done improving.
Next: The Western Conference
Nicolas Batum was pegged as a Rudy Gay type player who’s taller, longer, and French. Thus, my cousin Calvin nicknamed him “French Gay.” How great is that name? Honestly guys, keep track of Batum’s status, because if he ever gets starter’s minutes and remains healthy, I expect him to put up some pretty great fantasy numbers. He’s capable of contributing a handful of points, rebounds, blocks, and threes.
Kevin Love received great news recently that his knee isn’t seriously damaged. As the best rebounds-per-minute player last season. Love will finally get the chance to put up huge numbers this season now that Al Jefferson is gone. Love can score, grab a ton of rebounds, and he’ll score the occasional three. Michael Beasley also will have the chance to become relevant. Beasley has yet to really impress anyone with his play, but in Minnesota he’ll have a chance to show what he can do. I expect him to continue to be able to score in bunches, grab a few rebounds, but probably not contribute anything else.
Kevin Love’s ability to throw outlet passes and hit full court shots will never cease to amaze me.
httpvhd://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdIpjM5bnlg
Demarcus Cousins is worth keeping an eye on. As possibly the best big man talent in this year’s draft, Cousins has the potential to be a very solid power forward/center and be a good scorer/rebounder. I don’t know if he’ll be a consistent shot-blocker, but if given the minutes I have a feeling he could average a double-double. There’s a ton of competition at the big man positions on Sacramento, but there is no clear cut winner and Cousins could very well be the starter on opening night. Keep an eye on this position battle and it could be worthwhile to buy Cousins now, while his price is low.
Hedo Turkoglu has the perfect skill-set to be a fantasy beast in Alvin Ghentry’s up-tempo offense. Hedo can score, rebound, pass, and shoot the long ball. On the Phoenix Suns he may be a hybrid of Boris Diaw and Joe Johnson. Also keep your eye on the other new additions on the Suns Josh Childress and Hakim Warrick as well as their incumbent big men Channing Frye and Robin Lopez. As of now I’m not sure how their rotation will workout, but usually whoever plays big minutes in the Phoenix Suns offense is worth picking up in fantasy leagues.
Blake Griffin was recently described by teammate Craig Smith as being as strong as Karl Malone but with the explosiveness and athleticism as Lebron James. As ridiculous as it sounds, imagine for a second if it were true. Don’t you think Blake Griffin would be worth taking a risk on? I’d be willing to take him in later rounds, and I think a realistic ceiling for him is around 16-8 with 1.5 blocks or so. Two other big man rookies to keep your eye on but probably don’t need to draft, Tiago Splitter and Patrick Patterson. If Yao’s injured, Patterson will have a chance to put up Al Horford type numbers. If Splitter gets the playing time, he’ll have the chance to put up Marc Gasol / Luis Scola type numbers. Check out the video below for Blake Griffin’s 2007 dunk contest contributions.
httpvhd://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIU4pzrv_IU
Wesley Johnson and Al-Farouq Aminu are two rookie small forwards who are poised to contribute but we just don’t know in what way yet. Both of them are of the long, rangy class similar to Rudy Gay or Luol Deng that can pickup steals and blocks and score points along the way. Neither of them are set as starters, but if they do get starters minutes they should be worth picking up. Don’t draft these guys unless you’re using your last pick, but do keep an eye on them for the next few weeks.
Emaka Okafor and Andris Biedrins are rated 95 and 97 respectively in Yahoo! Fantasy NBA. Injuries derailed Biedrins season while limited minutes on a new team playing without tablesetter Chris Paul resulted in a less than stellar output for Okafor. I’m expecting both of these guys to put up close-to double-double numbers while shooting high FG%. Their low FT% will hurt you, but luckily they don’t shoot too many free throws so I can live with picking them in the 7th or 8th rounds. These guys are basically a destitute man’s Dwight Howard.
Al Harrington, Rudy Fernandez, and Peja Stojakovic are all 3 point specialists who are veterans that have kind of been forgotten. They could give you a boost if you need help in the 3 department. Depending on how many minutes they get, they’ll probably average 10-18 ppg with close to 2.0 3s per game. Keep an eye on Marcus Thornton and Martell Webster as well, who are good young shooters. Check in on James Harden as well, who is projected to be a better player than he has shown in his so far young career.
Brandon Roy isn’t entirely a sleeper, but don’t forget that two seasons ago he was worth taking at the beginning of the second round. I’m looking for him to put up better numbers than last year and be worthy of being selected in the second round.
Stephen Curry is the new sexy fantasy pick, his top-10 ranking in yahoo is impressive, but what’s more impressive is that as a rookie he contributed all across the boards with points, rebounds, assists, steals, threes, and good percentages. Stephen Curry is for real, and don’t underestimate his value.
5 Player to be Wary of:
David Lee is a good fantasy player, but there’s no way he’ll put up the 20-10 he did last year with good percentages all around. Andris Biedrins will cut down on his rebound numbers while guards Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry will take away some of his shots. Lee is still a good pickup, but he’s only worth taking in the 5th round or so.
Greg Oden, Andrew Bynum, and Yao Ming are 3 big men who have tremendous potential to be fantasy sleepers, but they will need to be healthy to be effective. Injuries are what have prevented them from being elite NBA centers, and each of them have a legit chance at being the second best center in the league this season behind Dwight Howard. However, be careful of all 3 of them, since they have all proven to be injury prone.
Shawn Marion and Caron Butler cut into each others minutes, and they have both passed their physical peaks. Marion’s 32 and Butler’s 30, as long as they both stay on the same team their production will be limited. Butler’s still good for the 6th round or so, and Marion should only be picked up near the end of the draft, but gone are the days where these guys go in the 1st and 2nd rounds.
Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, and Chauncey Billups are old. 36, 37, 34, that’s how old these guys are. Although all 3 of them have proven to be durable and healthy at the start of the season, I can’t help but wonder if Father Time will finally catch up to them this season. These guys are all potential 2nd or 3rd round picks, and they are definitely worth being picked so high. The only problem is, can they stay healthy?
Marcus Camby is 36, and he plays a role which is dependent on his jumping ability. For some reason I’m expecting a drop off in his production this year, as he’s getting pretty up there in age and his draft position is still pretty high. I’d avoid him because he’s old and often injured.
And that is that. Hopefully you’ll have found some true gems with my advice, and you are on your way to winning your fantasy league.