If Facing Ultimatum, Lakers Must Choose Dwight Howard Over Kobe

Well, it’s official. The trade deadline came and passed in Los Angeles and Dwight Howard is still a member of the Lakers. It’s not that big of a surprise, really, since Mitch Kupchak denied the possibility of trading Howard about 174 times in the last 72 hours before the deadline. But in reality, it could be a sign of something bigger. And that could be something that many people aren’t expecting, and certainly aren’t saying.

The Lakers need to commit to Dwight Howard. And by refusing to trade him, they have begun that process.

But committing to a player, especially one as fickle as Howard, involves much more than just refusing to trade him 55 games into his tenure with the team. It involves informing him that in the near future, this will be his team. His. Not anybody else’s.

And that’s where the Lakers come across a major problem. Right now, it’s not Dwight’s team. In fact, it’s anything but.

One of the major problems with Howard’s time in Los Angeles so far has been the obvious clashing of styles between himself and Kobe Bryant. You know, the Lakers’ other All-Star player. The guy that can do no wrong in the eyes of most fans. The guy that is responsible for more Laker fans than anybody on the planet not named Magic Johnson. For many people, there’s no difference between Kobe and the Lakers. The two are synonymous. And that’s a major problem if you’re the team’s front office.

But it can’t be.

It’s almost appropriate that this comes on the heels of losing Jerry Buss. Of course the loss of Dr. Buss was a tragedy, and I would never insinuate otherwise, but one of the reasons Buss’ legend will live long after he’s gone is his ability to make difficult decisions with the long-term stakes of the team on the line. His ability to put personal feelings aside, and do what was best for the team in the long run rather than become enamored by the present was one of his biggest assets. And it allowed the Lakers to sustain an absurd level of success while Dr. Buss was pulling the strings.

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Now, however, things are different. There’s a different JB running the show in Los Angeles, and while many fans unjustly have made their minds up about Jim, he’s still an unproven entity that could go either way. But he doesn’t have the luxury of waiting very long to make his first major decision. With the summer rapidly approaching, the team is facing an enormous question. A question whose answer will dictate the next 5-10 years of basketball in Los Angeles.

Dwight Howard or Kobe Bryant?

Now, in a perfect world things would resolve and Bryant and Howard would come together to form a dynamic duo and lead the Lakers to prominence. But after a 26-29 start and the inability to go two weeks without some new report of the feud between Bryant and Howard bubbling up, it’s looking increasingly apparent that this isn’t much more than a pipe dream of the uninformed.

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For most people the answer here is simple. As I mentioned above, the connection between Bryant and the Lakers organization is indistinguishable for most. But if Jim Buss, Mitch Kupchak and the rest of the team’s front office wants to ensure the team’s success on a championship level in the long-term future the choice is abundantly clear.

Dwight Howard.

The team can go about this a couple different ways, but ultimately it means informing Howard behind closed doors that they’re going to move away from Bryant. Which isn’t going to be easy to do. First of all, can Los Angeles trust Howard to keep his mouth shut about that information if they do give it to him? Because L.A. would have to tell this to Howard this summer, before he bolts in free agency. The meeting would involve convincing Howard to sign a long-term deal with the knowledge that once Kobe’s contract is up at the end of 2013-14, the team wouldn’t pursue bringing him back.

This is no easy task, but ultimately it’s something that must be done.

And it’s been done before.

Let’s take a few minutes and hop into the NBA Delorean, set the time circuits for 2004 and find some open road that will let us reach 88 MPH. After the Lakers flamed out against the Detroit Pistons in the 2004 NBA Finals, it was evident that changes were going to be made. Karl Malone and Gary Payton weren’t going to be around for the future, and their shot at glory in Los Angeles was brazenly snatched from them by Chauncey Billups and a couple guys named Wallace. But other than aging veterans that hadn’t lived up to expectations in Hollywood (sound familiar?), there was a bigger problem facing the L.A. front office.

The feud between Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal had reached a boiling point. It had become evident that the two couldn’t coexist heading into the future. When you compounded that knowledge with the fact that O’Neal wanted more money than Buss was willing to give a 31-year-old center that never seemed to come into camp healthy and/or in shape. But ultimately Dr. Buss and the Lakers decided that the best business plan was to invest in the younger player, even if that meant spending a couple years at the bottom. And their decision paid off.

Los Angeles traded Shaquille O’Neal to the Miami Heat on July 14, 2004, before locking up Bryant to a long-term deal that would make him the face of the Lakers moving forward. At the time the move was highly criticized. The next season, when Shaq won a ring with the Heat, the move was criticized even further. People began to say things like “Kobe can’t win without Shaq.” Or, “the Lakers should have traded Kobe and kept O’Neal.”

But now? People are singing a very different tune. And for good reason.

Next Page: Shaq, Kobe and what it means for Dwight Howard

Let’s take a look at the statistics from 2005-11. This indicates every season from the time of the trade until O’Neal’s retirement from the NBA.

First, we have Shaq’s numbers;

Next, here’s Kobe’s for the same period of time;

It’s not even close, is it? And remember, this isn’t because Kobe played longer than Shaq purely because he was younger. These are just the years when Shaq was still in the league, and Kobe’s numbers do more than speak for themselves.

Bryant averaged over 12 more points per game, three more assists per game, 10 more minutes per game and just 2.7 rebounds less per game.

Take a minute to look at that last statistic, because I feel like that’s one of the most telling of them all. O’Neal, the 7’1″ center averaged only 2.7 more rebounds per game than the 6’7″ shooting guard that spent most of his time on the perimeter.

Oh, and Kobe played in 144 more regular season games than Shaq during that time period.

And one more thing. During that time span, from ’05-’11, Kobe’s teams won two championships. Shaq’s won one.

Eight years after the trade, there’s not a single person that will try and tell you the Lakers made the incorrect choice by choosing Bryant over Shaq. Because they didn’t. But do they have what it takes to make the same move again?

It may seem like a difficult decision, but in reality it’s anything but. Just like we did with O’Neal and Kobe from 2004, let’s take a look at some of the numbers now to try and give ourselves a clearer idea of what exactly we’re looking at here.

Kobe Bryant is in his 17th NBA season. Dwight Howard is in his ninth.

Kobe Bryant is 34 years-old. Dwight Howard is 27.

Kobe Bryant has played 53,123 minutes of NBA basketball including the postseason. Let’s do that one more time.

53,123 minutes of NBA basketball.

Dwight Howard has played 26,421 minutes of NBA basketball. Again, including the playoffs.

In that batch of numbers, there’s not a single statistic that goes in Bryant’s favor. And it’s nothing against Kobe. As Mos Def so poignantly pointed out in 1999, it’s simple mathematics.

In sports there’s only one undefeated entity – time. No player can play forever. Even Kobe’s impressive longevity, which admittedly is already leaps and bounds ahead of O’Neal’s, isn’t going to last forever. By sacrificing a year or two of Kobe’s production for the long-term benefits of the franchise, the Lakers put themselves in a place where they can still be relevant in 2020, rather than sinking to the bottom of the NBA abyss in 2017.

Regardless, the team can’t make a decision here that isn’t going to be criticized endlessly, by fans and media alike. Especially if they make the right decision and let Bryant go in favor of Howard. But this isn’t something the organization hasn’t experienced before. Just like the scrutiny they faced after trading O’Neal in 2004, the front office knew that in the long term, picking young over old was the right decision and would pay off in the long run. Even through the lean years when the Lakers struggled and were forced to watch Shaq hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy in South Beach, they stayed the course and stuck by the decision they had made. And in the long run it paid off. Twice.

But that brings us back to 2013. Things are a lot different now than they were then. Kobe’s contributions to the franchise are something that will never be undone, and are unparalleled, once again, outside of Magic Johnson. It’s possible the organization gets gun shy, and becomes worried about the impact the move could have on public perception if they’re so quick to dump a player that has done so much for them.

The Lakers aren’t in the business of nostalgia or strolls down memory lane. They’re in the business of winning championships. And moving forward Dwight Howard is the player that gives them the best opportunity to do so. Whether you believe it or not, the numbers (and history) don’t lie.

It’s just business, right?