Without a playoff series to care about, Lakers fans have spent the first few weeks of the playoffs dreaming up scenarios based on about comments Mitch Kupchak made to reporters after their season ended. According to Kupchak, the team is open to the possibility of trading their lottery pick in the upcoming draft. Even though the idea had been brought up all season long, this was the first time someone from the front office was willing to go on record with it.
The name that seems to be mentioned most often when it comes to the Lakers and potential targets is Minnesota Timberwolves forward Kevin Love. There are some who believe that it’s not a question of if, but when, Love will become a Laker. You might even say he was the inspiration for the Twitter hashtag, #FutureLaker.
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Kupchak’s comments, combined with the retirement of Timberwolves head coach Rick Adelman, have only helped fuel the speculation, even if one has very little to do with the other. Perhaps there’s a theory that the Timberwolves are starting over again and Love won’t have the patience for it. Adelman was his fourth coach in only six seasons since he was drafted.
With only one guaranteed season left on Love’s current deal, the Timberwolves have a few options. If Love seems to be leaning towards leaving, it might be in their best interest to move him this summer rather than risk losing him for nothing in 2015. That isn’t the part of the story that’s hard to believe. The part that many Lakers fans seem to have a tough time understanding is that it would require something just shy of a miracle for their favorite team to acquire him via trade.
What’s rarely mentioned is that Love’s family moved to Oregon when he was only a year old and he spent just one season at UCLA before declaring for the NBA Draft. So even though he has ties to the area, he’d be the first to tell you those ties are greatly exaggerated. In other words, none of those ties supercede Love’s desire to do something he has yet to do in six seasons in Minnesota — make the playoffs, specifically to compete for a title.
There is nothing about this current Lakers team that should have anyone believing that they’re just a Kevin Love acquisition from competing for a championship. The Timberwolves finished this past season 40-42, nine games back of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Lakers finished the season 27-55, 13 games behind Love’s Timberwolves. You don’t need me to tell you. Here’s what Love told GQ just last month:
“People think it’s so far-fetched that I would stay in Minnesota,” he says. “And I’m not sh—ing on the Lakers, but we have the better team, the better foundation. I’m having fun.”
The only way that Love can become a Laker before he hits free agency is if Minnesota decided to trade him to the Lakers. Therein lies the problem. If you’re Minnesota, what would you be looking to get in return for Love? Maybe a couple of first-round picks, perhaps one or two young players still on rookie contracts, and maybe a team that willing to take back one or two bad contracts and provide them with cap relief.
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Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak On NBA Draft, No. 1 Pick And Trading The Pick
PAGE 2: Lakers Fans Need To Stop Daydreaming About Kevin Love … For Now
Judging by that criteria, what do the Lakers have that the Timberwolves could possibly want? If you’re to believe Kupchak, the Lakers would consider parting with their pick in the upcoming draft. The only problem is that we won’t know how valuable that pick is until the draft lottery on May 20. But if the Lakers needed to include another first-round pick, the earliest pick they could include would be in 2019. That’s because the NBA forbids teams from trading first-round picks in consecutive drafts and the Lakers have already traded away their 2015 and 2017 picks.
Technically, they Lakers aren’t even allowed trade their upcoming pick but they could work around that by making the pick on behalf of the Timberwolves and then waiting until after the draft for it to become official. However, that strategy doesn’t come without risk. Say the Timberwolves decide there are only three players in this year’s draft they would consider taking in a trade for Love. If the Lakers end up drafting sixth, and all three of those players are off the board when it’s time for them to make their selection, that possibility might no longer exist.
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**In order to avoid leaving any stones unturned, there are two other potential first round draft picks the Lakers could include in a package for Love. Both the 2015 and 2017 first-round picks that the Lakers traded to Phoenix and Orlando are top-5 protected. Meaning, if either pick lands in the top-5, the Lakers would keep it and the picks would roll over to the next year with different conditions. So technically speaking, the Lakers could offer Minnesota either or both picks, in the event that the pick(s) land in the top-5 and they retain them. The only issue there is that there is a very slight chance that a team with Kevin Love and a healthy Kobe Bryant would wind up with a top-5 pick. While it’s definitely a possibility, it isn’t enough to persuade Minnesota to pull the trigger. Would you trade a $100 bill for $20 and two $1 lottery scratchers? That’s kind of the same thing.
The Lakers ability to absorb bad contracts might be their only other asset. By renouncing the rights to all of their free agents, including Pau Gasol, Jodie Meeks, and Jordan Hill, and using the stretch provision on Steve Nash, they could have as much as $28.2 million in cap space. Looking at the Timberwolves spreadsheet, the only contract I’d guess they would love to dump is the three years, and $21.25M remaining on Kevin Martin’s deal. Considering they signed Martin to reunite him with Adelman for a third time, he is surely expendable now that Adelman is gone.
Assuming that Nikola Pekovic and Ricky Rubio are their only untouchables, all of their other contracts are for one or two more years at $5 million or less per season. While the Lakers might be willing to help relieve Minnesota’s payroll for next season by taking back the expiring contracts of J.J. Barea ($4.5M), Alexey Shved ($3.3M), or Luc Richard Mbah a Moute ($4.4M), I can’t imagine they have any interest in Martin eating up $7M of their cap space in 2015-16 or $7.4M the year after that. The same can be said for Corey Brewer’s $4.9M in 2016-17.
Chase Budinger, another player who reunited with Adelman in Minnesota, is owed $5M next season and has a $5M player option for 2015-16. While that might actually prove to be a bargain given his skillset, Budinger has missed 100 games over the last two seasons due to ankle and left knee injuries.
If the Lakers best package for Love centers around the sixth pick in this year’s draft, a 34-year-old Pau Gasol, and the ability to absorb Kevin Martin’s contract, there are far better options out there. For example, if it’s draft picks and young players on rookie contracts that Minnesota wants, the Lakers are the last team they should be discussing trades with. Compare how little the Lakers have to offer with what two other teams can offer them.
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Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak On NBA Draft, No. 1 Pick And Trading The Pick
PAGE 3: Lakers Fans Need To Stop Daydreaming About Kevin Love … For Now
Let’s start with Phoenix…
In just this coming draft, the Suns have their own pick (likely 14th) plus the Wizards and Pacers picks (17th and 27th, respectively). They also own that top-5 protected pick from the Lakers as early as next year and a first round pick from Minnesota that’s top-13 protected this year and top-12 protected in 2015 and 2016. The funny thing is there is only one way that Minnesota would have to convey that pick in this year’s draft and that’s if Phoenix, who is pretty much assured of getting the 14th pick, miraculously ends up in the top-3 — thus dropping the TWolves from 13th to 14th.
**It’s an extremely unlikely scenario considering the Suns have a .5 percent chance at the top pick, a .6 percent chance at the second pick, and a .7 percent chance at the third pick.
If the Timberwolves don’t convey the pick to Phoenix by 2016, they would instead send them their second round picks in 2016 and 2017. Even though the pick can never be higher than 12th, the Timberwolves probably wouldn’t mind having it back. Add them up and the Suns could have as many as six first round picks in the next two drafts. I doubt they’d mind dumping half of them for Love, especially since the Lakers pick is the only one that will likely end up in the top-10.
If we’re talking about young players on rookie contracts, Phoenix currently has five players who were first round picks in the last three years: the Morris twins, Miles Plumlee, and two players taken in the first round of last year’s draft, Alex Len, the 5th overall pick, as well as 29th pick, Archie Goodwin. They also have Eric Bledsoe, a restricted free agent this summer who is expendable due to the emergence of Goran Dragic. Bledsoe would first have to agree to a sign-and-trade but if he did, he would be under contract in Minnesota for at least the next three years and it would give them the freedom to trade Rubio before having to decide if they should re-sign him or not.
What about the Celtics?
In the upcoming draft, the Celtics own both their own pick, likely to be in the top-5, as well as the Nets pick, 18th overall. Next year, they own the rights to the Clippers pick as well as a top-14 protected Sixers pick. Beyond that, they own the Nets picks in 2016 and 2018, plus the right to swap picks with the Nets in 2017. In total, the Celtics could have as many as 10 first-round picks over the next five drafts, plus the right to swap picks in 2017 with a Nets team that is nearly capped out already due to the 2016-17 contracts of Joe Johnson, Deron Williams, and Brook Lopez.
As far as young players are concerned, the Celtics have Jared Sullinger, the 21st pick in the 2012 draft, as well as Kelly Olynyk, the 13th pick in 2013. Sullinger is coming off a very good season, although his history of back issues might scare some teams away and Olynyk showed flashes during the season that he might be a good NBA player. However, I would assume that neither player has enough upside to satisfy Timberwolves fans. If there is one advantage the Celtics have over the Suns, it’s being in the Eastern Conference. While Minnesota would probably prefer to keep him out of the West, I doubt that it would prevent them from making the best deal they can possibly make.
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While it’s true that Melo was able to force his way onto the Knicks, there were a few major differences between his situation and Love’s. First, Carmelo was sent to the Knicks at the trade deadline. Because he was an impending free agent, any team willing to trade for him was only guaranteed to have him for the 25 or so games that were left in that season. To give up the type of assets it was going to take to satisfy the Nuggets was way too big a risk for a team with so few games to make an impression. For the Suns and Celtics, who have so many picks, there is very little risk involved for them to give up two or three first round picks if they will have an entire season to convince Love to stay.
There is one other major difference with Carmelo’s situation. At the time of the trade, the NBA was staring down the barrel of an impending lockout and a much more owner-friendly CBA. Melo wanted to get his max extension under the terms of the old CBA. Things have definitely changed with the new CBA. There is no longer any incentive for players to sign extensions before they can become free agents. In other words, any team that wants to trade for Love won’t be scared away by him turning down an immediate extension offer because it’s expected he would decline it.
For example, when Dwight was traded to the Lakers, the max they could have offered him was a 3-year, $60 million extension. By waiting until he became a free agent, the max offer he got from the Lakers was a 5-year, $118 million extension. He might have turned them down but he still signed with Houston for four years and $88 million — one year and $28 million more than he would have got if he had signed the $60 million extension with the Lakers right away.
All of these things apply to any possible Lakers trade target, not just Love. The Lakers really have nothing to offer for anyone of real value right now. The only way they can add talent this offseason will be through the draft or by overpaying free agents like Anthony or Luol Deng. They can use some of their cap space to acquire a player from another team in a salary dump, just don’t expect it to be a game-changer because they still want maintain their flexibility for the 2015 and 2016 free agent classes.
I still have no idea what next season’s roster will look like. I do know that if you’re expecting Kevin Love to be on it, you probably shouldn’t hold your breath. At least not yet.
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Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak On NBA Draft, No. 1 Pick And Trading The Pick