Over the next week, all basketball eyes will be on the Americans, and the pressure to win the gold as overwhelming favorites at -600 odds and an implied probability of 85.7% is mounting as Team USA enters this final run. The Americans begin their defining week with a basic mantra by coach Steve Kemp: keep it simple and stay with your identity; which applies in spades to the Los Angeles Lakers representatives, who have both been a significant part of Team USA’s success.
LeBron James and Anthony Davis have provided veteran leadership and crucial playmaking abilities. With his unparalleled basketball IQ and experience, James has been a guiding force on and off the court. Davis, known for his defensive prowess and scoring versatility, has been a critical player in maintaining the team’s defensive identity. Both will be looking to add to their trophy case this week in Paris.
Tuesday vs. Brazil
After playing just three games in two weeks, Team USA will look to win three games in five days, beginning Tuesday in the quarterfinals against Brazil (3:30 p.m. ET). The betting odds heavily favor the Americans, with the team listed at -15000 on the moneyline against Brazil and as 26.5-point favorites according to the top Canadian sports betting sites. A gold medal would be the fifth consecutive, dating back to 2008. The 2004 team won the Bronze medal in 2004.
Over the past month, the Americans have honed a style that has led them to a perfect 8-0 record, including exhibitions. They were committed to staying with the plan as they made final preparations on Monday.
“We know what wins a FIBA game,” Team USA coach Steve Kerr said, referring to the international rules played at the Olympics. “We are just completely focused on our defense … and then the beauty of our team and the talent, the depth of our talent is that from one game to the next, we’ve got lots of guys who can get rolling.”
Unmatched Depth
Team USA brings unmatched depth, athleticism, and talent. James, averaging 14.3 points and 7.3 assists, and Kevin Durant, who is shooting 64% off the bench, are pacing the Americans. The second unit of Derrick White, Bam Adebayo, Anthony Edwards, Davis, and Durant would probably still be favored to win the gold even if it were on its own. As demonstrated in pool play, the Americans have terrific perimeter options and rim protectors in Davis, Adebayo, and Joel Embiid, and the team is devastating in transition.
Defensively, the U.S. is holding its opponents to 40% shooting and just 29% on 3-pointers. It is creating a combination of 16 steals and blocks per game. Kerr has eleven players on the roster averaging between 18-22 minutes, and he has prioritized having size, likely due to the more physical nature of the international game, leaning into playing three centers in his rotation most of the time.
“That’s how we can overwhelm teams. It’s just everybody has to be ready for your moment whenever it is,” said Stephen Curry, who has struggled shooting the ball in the Olympics (32% overall), but it hasn’t slowed the team down. “I think that’s a challenge because you don’t know from quarter to quarter, from game to game who it’s going to be, [but] it’s a fun way to play. If you’ve bought into ‘Let’s just win the basketball game,’ and after that, who cares what it looks like.”
While the Americans don’t have the advantage of many of their opponents at the Olympics when it comes to the years of experience the cores of other countries have played together, everything the coaching staff has done for the past month has been purposeful in coming up with a reliable game plan, and they want to stick with it.
“It’s important to focus on keeping that identity now that you’re playing the best teams,” Kerr said.
The focus has been rebounding in preparations for Brazil, which advanced to the quarters on point differential after going through pool play with a 1-2 record. The Americans are fourth in rebounds per game (41) behind Australia, Serbia, and South Sudan, averaging 9.3 offensive boards. They’ve scored 100-plus in all three games, the first time since the Dream Team, but when they slow down, they’re more vulnerable. Brazil averages 13 offensive rebounds per game, and Kerr said he’s expecting the team to try to “maul” the Americans on the boards.
But while that may be a focus, there is no plan to alter the game plan radically. “Looking ahead, we just keep the main thing, the main thing,” said Adebayo, referencing a famous saying from his Miami Heat. “We can make the game truly simple because we’re so talented. Everybody has the right mindset.”
