Each Monday, Wednesday, and Friday I will be bringing you my top plays, and my favorite Laker (if the Lakers are playing), for that day’s DraftKings slate.
I will focus on two high-priced players, two players in the mid-range, and two value plays to help build your lineups.
High Priced Plays
Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers: ($9,400)- There are a lot of great options to target from tonight’s matchup between the Brooklyn Nets and the Portland Trail Blazers, and while there is some blowout risk, Lillard is my favorite of the bunch.
Lillard understandably put up a dud against the Grizzlies but that shouldn’t be the case tonight as the Nets are not only the worst defense in the NBA, allowing opponents to score 116.2 points per game, but they are also one of the worst teams in the league defending the point guard position. The Nets are allowing opposing point guards to score 49.51 fantasy points per game and that number will go up significantly after Lillard drops a huge game against them tonight.
Lillard has struggled with his shooting this season, hitting only 41 percent of his shots from the floor, and only 31.6 percent from three, but with the Nets allowing opponents to shoot 46.3 percent from the floor and 36 percent from three, I am expecting him to break out of that slump. Lillard has plenty of upside at his price for GPPs and is a safe bet for cash games as well.
Andre Drummond, C, Detroit Pistons: ($8,800)- After targeting Andre Drummond in a great matchup against a poor rebounding team, it is time to target Drummond again tonight in an elite matchup against the worst rebounding team in the NBA.
Drummond, who is averaging 46.7 DraftKings points per game over his last three contests, has eclipsed the 50-point mark twice in his last three games and has an excellent chance to do that again tonight against the Hawks. Drummond has pulled down at least 14 rebounds in seven of Detroit’s 11 games this season, and he has eclipsed 20 points in two of those games.
The Hawks are allowing the second-most rebounds per game to opponents, 47.9, have the worst rebounding differential in the NBA at -6.0, and they are allowing 45.8 points in the paint this season. In DFS we call a game where someone pulls down 20 rebounds and 20 assists “A Barbara Walters Game” and that is what Drummond has the opportunity to achieve tonight.
Mid-Range Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, San Antonio Spurs: ($7,900)- Now that DraftKings has dropped LaMarcus Aldridge below the $8,000 mark, it is time to hop back on the train. The Spurs are without Kawhi Leonard, as they have been this entire season, so the offense will once again run through Aldridge.
Aldridge has been outstanding so far, this season, posting a 28.5 percent usage rate while averaging 40.3 DraftKings points per game on 22.6 points and 8.3 boards. Aldridge has been incredibly efficient this season, shooting 49 percent from the floor, while attempting 58 percent of his shots from the midrange. That last part is important tonight because the Bucks are allowing opponents to shoot 44 percent on midrange attempts, the second-highest percentage in the NBA.
The Bucks currently rank around the middle of the league in fantasy points allowed to power forwards, giving up 48.64 per game, but they have been prone to give up big games to high usage forwards that can score. Aldridge is an excellent cash game option tonight, and at only $7,900 has plenty of upside for GPPs.
Elfrid Payton, PG, Orlando Magic: ($6,900)- Elfrid Payton only played 29 minutes against the Knicks after returning from a hamstring injury, but that was all he needed, as he put up 43.5 DraftKings points and posted a double-double.
Payton has always been a volatile DFS option, but he has also shown that he has massive upside in the right matchups. Payton notched five triple-doubles last season, along with 20 games over 40 DraftKings points.
Going against a Phoenix squad that is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season, 55.51, Payton is an absolute lock for me at only $6,900. The Suns are allowing 115.8 points per game to opponents this season, while also allowing them to shoot 47 percent from the floor, so there will be plenty of opportunities for Payton to not only score but also rack up assists. As I mentioned above, Elfrid has shown how much upside he has in the past, so he can be used in GPPs tonight along with cash games.
Value Plays
Lou Williams, PG/SG, Los Angeles Clipper: ($5,200)- The Clippers are without Milos Teodosic, Patrick Beverley, Danilo Gallinari, and possibly Austin Rivers tonight, and while this isn’t the most appealing spot to target, I have a lot of interest in Williams as he fills in for a depleted backcourt.
Without Milos, Beverley, and Gallinari this season, Williams has posted a usage rate of 28.4 percent while averaging 1.15 DraftKings fantasy points per minute, and those numbers get even better when you take Austin Rivers off the court. Without those three and Rivers on the floor, William’s usage skyrockets to 36.3 percent and averages 1.34 DraftKings fantasy points per minute.
Williams has averaged 23.4 DraftKings points per game on the season, while playing around 23 minutes per game, but he with injuries to the rest of the backcourt those minutes will increase tonight. While this isn’t a great matchup, OKC is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards, 35.89, but the combination of minutes and increased usage make this too good of a spot to ignore. I like Williams as a cash and GPP play tonight, and he becomes someone that I absolutely will not fade under any circumstances if Rivers is also ruled out.
Aron Baynes, C, Boston Celtics: ($4,300)- After previously being ruled out for a concussion, the Boston Celtics have upgraded center Al Horford to questionable for tonight’s game. If Horford plays we will see Aron Baynes shift back to the bench and he will no longer be a viable DFS option. Marcus Morris and Alex Len are excellent pivots in the same price range tonight, should Horford suit up.
But with Jayson Tatum listed as questionable for this game, and if Horford is out, it is Baynes who finds himself on my radar tonight. Baynes stepped up in a big way starting for Horford last game, posting 21 points and 8 boards, on his way to 34.5 DraftKings points. Because of his big game, Baynes saw his price shoot up from $3,500 to $4,300 but even at that price, he can easily reach value in both cash games and GPPs tonight.
Baynes has been a monster on the glass this season, posting a 15.5% rebounding rate while on the floor, and averaging almost six boards per game while only averaging 19.2 minutes. The Hornets, while having some decent rebounders on the floor, are still allowing 44.5 rebounds to opponents per game, while also allowing them to score 42 points in the paint and 10.9 second-chance points this season.
They are allowing opponents to shoot 60.6 percent at the rim, where Baynes is attempting 58 percent of his shots. I don’t expect Baynes to come out and put up 34.5 DraftKings points again tonight, but we only need around 25 for him to pay off his salary tonight.
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