Only 28 more non-shopping days ‘til Dwightmas, ending his two-year run-up to July 1, after moving his target date back from that day in 2012 to 2013. This isn’t about where Dwight Howard is going, since we can only wait and see. This is about what will happen then, or rather, how many teams will he lead onto the rocks before he’s through.
Wherever it is, there’s a great chance that the (redacted) will hit the fan. Again. As it did with the Lakers and Magic, who had him, and the Nets and Mavericks, who tried to acquire him. Not that Howard won’t turn any marginally marginal team into a playoff contender.
Big wow. That’s a lot of money–$118 million for the Lakers, $88 mill for anyone else–to make the playoffs. If he joins a team that is then considered a championship contender, Howard just showed he could turn one of those into a playoff contender, too.
So, in what I believe to be the order of probable outcomes:
Lakers—The extra 35% they can guarantee may well hold him here, even if he could lop the money he leaves on the table to 25% in the Lone Star Tax Haven, saving the 10% California income tax. Unfortunately, Dwight still has “issues” that haven’t gone away. People close to him say he’s still leery of Kobe Bryant, a big sign of immaturity, as well as down on Mike D’Antoni, keeping his record perfect since he’s been down on his previous coaches.
Dwight doesn’t talk about it but those close to him, like Dwight Sr., the retired Georgia state cop, called D’Antoni “the problem,” in February for letting Bryant hurt his son’s feelings.
“Dwight is probably looking at the coach, thinking, ‘What are you going to do?’” Dwight Sr. told the Atlanta Constitution.
“I promise, if that had been Stan Van Gundy, that wouldn’t have happened. [Dwight] wouldn’t have been admonished publicly. I think the coach has a lot to do with who controls Kobe’s mouth right now.”
It’s clear Dwight Sr. knows even less about Kobe than Dwight Jr..
However, if Bryant is demanding and domineering, this is a kinder, gentler Kobe than the one who feuded with Shaquille O’Neal, ignoring any urge to pinch Dwight’s head off at the neck. If Bryant grumbled privately about wooing someone who didn’t want to be here, he remained diplomatic and supportive. In the team meeting at Memphis that turned their season around, Kobe acknowledged being hard to play with, an unheard of concession for him, and even invited Dwight to air out his problems.
Howard demurred… which is what he does. Pau Gasol, arriving in Dwight’s position in 2008, saw it as a gift, helping the Lakers make the Finals his first three seasons, including a championship in 2009-2010. It’s not a good sign if Howard isn’t over his problem with Bryant after all they surmounted together.
Nor does the Memphis meeting suggest that Dwight has any inclination or ability to work out such problems. Howard isn’t as deep and dark on D’Antoni, hinting at a problem last week when he told the Los Angeles Times’ T.J Simers that MDA “is a great person.” Is he a great coach?
“He’s a great person,” repeated Dwight.
So, yes, it seems as though Howard would really like it if the Lakers would get the hint and sack D’Antoni. Unfortunately, Dwight, determined not to enhance his coach-killer rep by offing any more of them, neglected to tell that to GM Mitch Kupchak. Not that they would be likely to fire D’Antoni in any case, but the Lakers aren’t even aware there’s a problem.
Unlike you and me, they deal with Dwight first-hand, with the peril of wanting to believe him. All he apparently told Kupchak is that he wished D’Antoni would let him be more of a leader. How’s that for a straight line? Where would he lead them…Disneyland?
So, even if Howard takes the money and stays, he’s likely to come back next season with issues, like those he arrived with last season. And it’s not like the Lakers, with Bryant’s injury, MDA’s pressure, and the need to defer rebuilding until next spring, won’t have enough issues. Think of it like the good old days of Shaq & Kobe, just without the championships.
Next Page: Houston, Mavericks, Warriors, Magic, Nets
Houston—Already shopping forward Thomas Robinson to open up space for a max slot. Signing Dwight would neccessitate more moves to accommodate him, like finding a taker for center Omer Asik. Not that I expect the Lakers, who retired the numbers of Mikan, Wilt, Kareem and Shaq to take Asik, or participate in any sign-and-trade.
If Dwight leaves, the Lakers will probably take the extra $20 million in cap room and $50 million in savings, counting luxury tax over any package of players. The tandem of Howard and James Harden sounds impressive, but so did the tandem of Dwight and Kobe. Harden’s bread-and-butter play is the pick-and-roll, which Dwight couldn’t run with Steve Nash, so good luck.
Mavericks—They’re shopping their No. 13 pick for the room to sign Dwight.
Picture it: Howard with Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion, Vince Carter, Rodrique Beaubois and Jae Crowder….I’m sorry, why would anyone think Dwight will go there again?
Warriors—They’re not in it, no matter what Dwight’s wishing. They don’t have cap room, obliging him to trade for him. Beyond both teams’ disinclination to trade with each other, the last place the Lakers would ever send Dwight is to another Pacific Division team. Just in case you, and Dwight, wondered.
These teams may join those Dwight has already led on the rocks.
Magic—They spent two years trying to keep him, encouraged by Dwight who kept saying he wanted to stay. The centerpiece of their presentation was the 2011 All-Star Game in their new arena, a pageant intended to show Howard how much they loved him. Of course, Dwight was just being polite about saying he wanted to stay. Unfortunately, they were dealing with him first-hand, too, and wanted to believe him, etc. The Magic wound up firing Van Gundy (the coach Dwight now claims to like) and General Manager Otis Hill. Team President Bob Vander Weide, a DeVos son-in-law, got the axe for calling Dwight in the early hours one morning (hic!), urging him to stay.
Remember how upset they were when Shaq bolted to the Lakers? At least, he got that done in a few weeks. Dwight took a year they’ll never forget.
Nets—The team he wanted to join, which spent all last season trying to make it happen. They had Howard refrained from opting in in March, Brooklyn could have signed him in the summer, but n-o-o-o….
By opting in, to get the heat off, before deciding once more that he wanted to join the Nets, he gave the Magic control. Loathing to send him to an East team, they turned down various Nets proposals, until Deron Williams told them to get someone or he’d sign with Dallas. The Nets re-signed Brook Lopez, filling up Howard’s slot and accrued Joe Johnson, owed $70 million for three more seasons, through age 34. Otherwise, the Nets could have signed Dwight this summer!
So, if you’re wondering why the Nets are so old, the Magic is starting over and the Lakers became a laughingstock….They don’t make saviors the way they used to.